Just 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while his coach berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their opening six matches, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again versus United.
The initial strike stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A statistical correction might be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run must be cherished exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
